Projection: The Six-Year Itch and A Rainy Day for Democrats

538's projection likes the Republicans even more.
After nailing the projection for the 2012 election (well, almost) and the 2010 Special Election (see the section on Scott Brown losing in 2012), I’ve spent hours in the lab preparing this prediction. And… it’s not pretty for Democrats.

The US Senate
Projection: Republicans finish with 51 seats, take control of the Senate.

If you recall from 2012, I emphasized how important the economy was for national elections. In short, a good economy is good for the incumbent party in the White House (this is why I projected an easy win for Obama). Since then the economy has continued to improve, with the unemployment rate down to 6%. Why is it going to be bad for the Democrats then? Two things:
  • The economic gains are not being equally distributed. The NY Times shows how benefits from the recovery have flowed disproportionately to top earners. And this is not just the famed “1%”, the unemployment rate is 6% nationwide but only 3% for those with a college degree. So while the economy is improving, it is not improving for everyone.
  • In political science there’s a maxim that Presidential election years are about the economy and midterm elections are about the President. Obama’s lagging approval rating makes it tough sledding for Democrats. It’s hard to point to a single action by Obama that has brought this on, more likely it’s a general malaise towards the incumbent party. Some political scientists call this this the “six-year itch”
Massachusetts Governor
Projection: Charlie Baker (R) over Martha Coakley (D)

I’ve been impressed by Martha Coakley’s performances in the debates. However, Baker has had an edge in favorability ratings that she has not been able to pierce.

Because there are so many more Democrats in Massachusetts, Coakley just needs to get people to the polls. Unfortunately for her, another reality of midterm elections is that turnout is much lower. Coakley’s best chance is the Democratic ground game, and, as silly as it seems, the bad weather this weekend did not help that.  Also, there may be lingering fractures in the Democratic establishment after a bitter primary.  The higher turnout is, the better Coakley will do; I don’t think it will be high enough for her.

US Senator from NH
Projection: Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Scott Brown (R)
While I would personally vote for Coakley, the best I can offer her is schadenfreude; her 2010 nemesis Scott Brown will lose as well.

Pennsylvania Governor
Projection: Tom Wolf (D) over Tom Corbett (R)

Can we pass a law that candidates with the same first name can't run against each other?


US Senator from MA
Projection: Ed Markey (D) over somebody

Is it because he’s pretty much running unopposed, or because he got the bump from my Instagram account?
A photo posted by Alex Garlick (@garlicksauce) on

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