Mostly Colorblind

“McCain greeted the day of Lehman’s demise at a rally in Jacksonville, Florida. The Dow was already plunging its way toward a five-hundred-point decline between the opening and closing bells. “There’s been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street, and it is—people are frightened by these events,” McCain said. “ The fundamentals of our economy are strong , but these are very, very difficult times.  ( Game Change , p. 379 )                 Today, Team Obama breathed a sigh of relief with the news that the country added 163,000 jobs in July. However, it also finds itself in a precarious position. While a strong economy would almost certainly guarantee the President a second term, that’s not what we have. We have an economy that’s teetering on the edge, exhibiting signs of strength and signs of weakness from one month to the next, and sometimes simultaneously (Deep in today’s report was ...

Political scientists will be the first to tell you that campaigns are driven by the fundamentals. The most important variables in an incumbent president’s reelection are if the country is at war and the state of the economy. At the same time, more recent work has found innovative ways that campaigns can induce turnout, cross-pressure voters, and ultimately influence the behavior of voters in a number of ways. But are these two interpretations at odds? A seemingly innocuous Twitter conversation between journalists and political scientists yesterday casted that doubt, calling it “ironic” in a perjorative sense. The prevailing consensus in that thread: it’s not ironic if different political scientists hold different opinions. But the field at large is still plagued by this impression of cognitive dissonance between campaigns determining elections and fundamentals driving the result. So what is it? Structure or Agency? @ symbol overload The easy answer: both. The better que...

Since everybody I know is asking for my expert opinion on this race I will weigh in. COAKLEY VS. BROWN Who will win?: Up until Sunday afternoon, I was convinced that the Massachusetts Democratic Machine would save Coakley from herself and power her through to victory. But after sifting through poll data yesterday, I've changed my tune and am now convinced Scott Brown CAN pull this out (Still, in a state where DEMS overpower GOP by MORE than 2 to 1, I will need to see this to believe it). But if, and when, Brown wins it will be for the following reasons: Brown is clearly in the right place at the right time. Coakley ran a poor campaign. She won the primary by staying above the fray and letter Pagliuca and Capuano, her only true opponents, argue with each other. She probably thought she could do the same here. Even when she did start campaigning, she had a weak message. Scott Brown is in the pocket of Wall Street? Come on, is this the fall of 2008? Scott Brown is in lock...